Ruddock Report: Going With The Glass-Half-Full View For A Change

Our monthly look at the online gambling landscape includes the current legal and regulatory landscape, prospective online casino and online poker states, and significant trends to watch.

Pessimism is the overarching feeling in the industry regarding online casino and/or online poker legalization. However, there are also some glimmers of hope and optimism … assuming you know where to look and what to look for. 

LEGAL ONLINE CASINO   ONLINE POKER-ONLY

Two is better than zero

As reported in last month’s Ruddock Report, two of the industry’s top research firms, Vixio and Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, have lowered their expectations for online casino and online poker legalization.

In a more recent research report titled “U.S. Sports Betting And Online Casino Outlook,” EKG elaborated on its five-year outlook.

EKG projects that “just two states — Florida and New Hampshire — will launch some form of online casino prior to 2029.”

That isn’t an overly optimistic outlook, but as I’ve noted all along, the most likely candidates are the ones nobody is talking about. We are more likely to get a late-session miracle like Rhode Island in 2023 than a long, multi-year effort like in Maryland or New York finally crossing the finish line. I’ll offer more thoughts on this in the “Trends to watch” section below. 

Discussion is better than silence

Talk is cheap, but it’s important to note that several states are expected to have robust discussions about legalizing online casinos.

We already have the beginnings of efforts emerging in Massachusetts, Louisiana, and New York, and I suspect a half-dozen other states will also consider legalizing online casinos. The all-important question is whether anyone will eat what’s being served or if it will just sit there like a sad-looking holiday fruitcake.

Of course, these discussions will need to occur in the right place at the right time, which is a recurring theme in this article. 

The candidate list

The chart below provides the outlook for online casino legalization discussions in the coming years. Legalization would occur two to five years later. This month’s only change is replacing Iowa with Arkansas in the short-term viable candidates list.

As always, a dark horse could emerge at any time. 

Candidate spotlight: Arkansas 

Arkansas suddenly appeared on the candidate radar earlier this year when Saracen Casino pushed for regulatory rule changes that it believed would authorize online casino gambling in the state.

As I noted in a previous edition of the Ruddock Report, “The Razorback State covertly legalized online poker when it legalized four casinos and sports betting in a statewide referendum in 2018. That has flown entirely under the radar because regulators have never officially authorized online poker.”

Carlton Saffa, CMO at Saracen Casino Resort, told Gambling.com in April that he believes regulators can authorize online casino games by expanding the language of 006-06-19 Ark. Code R. § 5 to include internet casino games in addition to online poker.

“A solution exists by amending ARC Rule 5, which already authorizes online poker, to include other types of table games and slots,” Saffa said.

Saracen’s efforts fell on deaf ears, but its argument is sound, and the company is now trying to take an inch rather than a mile.

Saracen Casino has shifted to asking regulators to authorize 50/50 online drawings or raffles, with proceeds going to NIL deals. Saffa explained the new proposal on X as a way to counteract “illegal” operators in the state.

“We already have online gaming in Arkansas,” Saffa tweeted. “What he calls sketchy, law enforcement has referred to as organized crime. Saracen’s proposal for all Arkansas casinos does this and helps NIL. Win-win.”

Considering the grim outlook for legislative efforts, we may start seeing more states take Arkansas-like approaches and look for loopholes in laws and regulations to bring some forms of online gambling to market.  

Trends to watch

Trend No. 1: Keep it on ice  

As I wrote last month, “Introducing a bill out of the blue late in the session could be the best bet, as long, drawn-out debates tend to muddy the waters and provide opponents more time to formulate their arguments against legalization.”

Despite this, New York’s leading online gambling supporter, state Sen. Joseph Addabbo Jr., is telegraphing his efforts for 2025, which he says he will introduce early in the session.

This is a dangerous game, as opponents are growing in number and have more time to convince lawmakers to oppose online casinos and look for revenue elsewhere. 

Trend No. 2: Let’s get even more creative

In last month’s “Trends to watch,” I proposed that “supporters may decide that, given the cannibalization concerns, they should pare down their asks to poker-only or, more likely, a combination of poker and live-dealer table games.” 

Considering the efforts in Arkansas and some early rumblings, the licensed industry may start considering sweepstakes as acquisition targets rather than competitors. If the status quo continues, the industry could get extremely creative in its quest for online gambling in the future.