It’s Survivor Pool Carnage After Two Weeks Of NFL Season

If you’re in a “Survivor” pool this NFL season, you probably received a message from your pool-runner late Monday night or early Tuesday morning similar to this one shared by a Casino Reports co-worker:

“We are down to 17 already. This may end up being the quickest Survivor pool ever. Over 100 entrants were knocked out in the first two weeks (or 87% for those counting).”

Depending on the size and scope of the pool, from the little private home-league types to the massive ones run by regulated operators, the numbers will vary. Not every pool is at 87% down, 13% remaining.

For the most part, the bigger the pool, the more that entrants try to go a bit contrarian, and thus the more people still alive.

But whatever the exact entrant and dollar numbers, every 2024 Survivor pool is a bloodbath.

Fade the chalk!

Circa Sports, which runs the most massive regulated contest in the U.S. with its $1,000 entry fee and prize pool in excess of $14 million, issued a press release Monday — before the additional head-choppings delivered via the Eagles’ late collapse against the Falcons — highlighting the fact that the most popular picks in both Week 1 and Week 2 lost (which was true of most lower-level pools as well).

In Week 1, 34.3% of entries picked the Bengals over the Patriots, only to watch New England win on the road as the steepest underdog of the week.

In Week 2, it was the Ravens who were picked the most, by 26.5% of the remaining Circa field, and they blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead at home and lost to the Raiders in stunning fashion.

Of the 8,702 entries that survived Week 1, 2,304 lost with Baltimore, another 859 went wrong with Detroit, and 785 poor souls picked Philly. Plus, another 701 combined got bounced thanks to the Jags, Cowboys, or Colts.

And just like that, only 27.2% of Circa Survivor contestants remain. After two weeks.

The lowest percentage left in the contest after two weeks in any previous year was 32.8% in 2022.

Of the eight most popular picks in Week 2, six lost.

Sad trombones all over Twitter

DraftKings Sportsbook runs Survivor contests as well, and DK published an article last Wednesday suggesting five teams to consider. The Ravens were atop the list, while the Eagles and the ill-fated 49ers also made the top 5. Oops.

Everywhere you look, the picks and percentages are similar:

Prediction: Second-chance Survivor pools will be more popular than ever this season.

Additional note: Anyone still alive in a pool clearly hasn’t used the Bengals yet, and they’re the biggest favorite on the board this week, with a line of -8.5 at home against Washington on Monday night, which means … the Commanders moneyline, priced as high as +330 at FanDuel Sportsbook, is awfully tempting.