Narrowing Focus To Regulated Wagering, AGA Estimates Record Amount Bet On Super Bowl LIX

The American Gaming Association (AGA) released its annual Super Bowl betting handle estimate Tuesday morning — but took a different approach than in past years.

The headline news is that American sports bettors are projected to legally wager a record $1.39 billion on Super Bowl LIX, which will be contested between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans Sunday.

But it’s difficult to put that number in context relative to AGA estimates in prior years, because the AGA, for each of the previous six post-PASPA Super Bowls, estimated how many American adults would be betting and how much they would be risking across all regulated and unregulated options, including in off-the-books “Super Bowl Squares” pools with family and friends.

Those projections, by year:

• 2019: 22.7 million adults, $6.0 billion
• 2020: 26 million adults, $6.8 billion
• 2021: 23.2 million adults, $4.3 billion
• 2022: 31.4 million adults, $7.61 billion
• 2023: 50.4 million adults, $16 billion
• 2024: 68 million adults, $23.1 billion

According to the AGA, the $1.39 billion expected to be wagered legally (38 states plus Washington, D.C. currently offer regulated retail and/or mobile sports betting) would be a record, even if it pales in comparison to the amount bet across all available methods a year ago.

“No single event unites sports fans like the Super Bowl, and that excitement extends to sports betting, with this year’s record legal handle reflecting its widespread appeal,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller in the release. “This figure underscores the positive impact of the legal market — from protecting consumers to generating tax revenue that benefits communities across the country — while enhancing the game experience for all.”

Methods and moneylines

The AGA explained its methodology as follows:

“The Super Bowl LIX estimate includes legal wagers only in U.S. legal jurisdictions. Previously, the AGA, using a public survey instrument, arrived at estimates that incorporated all forms of betting on the Super Bowl, including bets made on unregulated or illegal platforms, as well as casual bets (squares, etc.). With years of legal operations in several U.S. states, the AGA now analyzes historical revenue data and other trends to develop a legal wager estimate for major U.S. sports betting moments.”

As of press time Tuesday morning, the Chiefs were 1.5-point favorites at every major regulated U.S. sportsbook except Caesars, which had the line at Chiefs -1. On the moneyline, Kansas City ranged from -127 to -120 and Philadelphia was priced between +100 and +105. The total varied between 48.5 and 49.5 depending on the book.

The AGA, a national trade group representing the casino industry since 1994, noted in the Super Bowl LIX release its commitment to responsible gambling. The association called attention to its partnership with former New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram II, who will be promoting the AGA’s “Have A Game Plan. Bet Responsibly” campaign throughout the week.