Chauncey Billups’ Mafia Poker Scandal Will Most Likely End With A Whimper

Here’s a prediction: Chauncey Billups will not end up being Public Enemy No. 1.

He may not even be Public Enemy No. 1,000,000,000.

Appearing in U.S. District Court in Brooklyn on Monday morning, the Portland Trail Blazers head coach (yes, he’s technically “on leave,” though over at Kalshi you can take 56 cents on him being out as coach, one way or another, by year’s end) pleaded not guilty in his role in an alleged Mafia-run poker scheme. He’s charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

He was an alleged “face card,” acting as bait to lure in the fish, whom the mob promptly filleted with all manner of illegal warfare, including altered card-shuffling machines, hidden cameras, specially-outfitted sunglasses, and X-ray equipment.

But, yes: Billups was in court for this alleged case (not the other one, where he — well, where “co-conspirator 8” — told some ne’er-do-wells about their plan to bench their starters, which seems a little more hairy, though Billups has not been charged with anything, at least as of now).

And while the “not guilty” emanating from Billups mouth wasn’t a surprise, what was a little bit of a surprise was hearing Elie Honig on CNN earlier in the morning.

Much ado about nothing?

Honig is an analyst for the network, and spent a good chunk of his career as an assistant United States attorney in the Southern District of New York. While there, he secured more than 100 criminal convictions against members of the Mafia.

Point being, he knows his way around these types of cases.

And his take? Billups — who is being released for now on a $5 million bond — is going to walk more than Giannis Antetokounmpo.

“I don’t see texts or emails involving Chauncey Billups that show … he knew about the games being rigged, so he’s got what we would call a triable case on that. He’s got the ability to go to trial and put up a reasonable defense on those fraud charges,” Honig said. 

He also believes that out of the 31 charged in the case, somewhere in the neighborhood of the “high twenties” are going to plead out. (Assistant U.S. Attorney Michael Gibaldi informed the court that plea negotiations have begun with some defendants.)

OK. So let’s get this straight: The mob is running a crooked card game (not a shocker). Those guys are going to plead. Billups is … going to take the fall for the whole operation? I’m not a lawyer, but I’ve seen enough Law & Order to know that’s not going to happen.

So what will happen? While we wait for Kalshi to get a market up on that, here’s what I think: Billups will plead to one of the charges, probably wire fraud. He’ll be sentenced to probation, maybe a few months at a country club. His reputation will be tarnished, notwithstanding the other case. A few misguided souls will somehow blame PASPA being overturned for all this. What started out as a headline-grabbing, pearl-clutching, heavens to Murgatroyd moment will end with a whimper on page B6.

Everywhere you look

The judge in the case, Ramon E. Reyes, set the next hearing for March 4, 2026, and said he hopes to get this case started by autumn. Some watchers think the whole thing will take years to play out.

But it seems like Sterling K. Brown’s agent can probably stop waiting for the call; a biopic of Billups that ends with a plea whimper doesn’t sound like box office gold to me.

To be clear, I’m not a judge, jury, or moral arbiter, and I certainly wasn’t present at any of these poker games. But based on the little we know — and the gut of Konig — it sure sounds like this case is less O.J. Simpson and more Aunt Becky’s college admissions scandal: a lot of noise, a slap on the wrist, and everyone moves on.