Manhattan May Get A Casino? Hold My Gabagool, Says New Jersey

Let me tell you a little something about my home state, New Jersey: We are a proud people. 

In fact, I’d wager — yes, wager, with American dollars — that if there was a way to measure pride in one’s state, New Jersey would come in first or second. (I’m looking at you, Texas.)

Why are my people so proud?

The reasons are endless, but one big reason is the fact there are no New Jersey television affiliates with the major networks. NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX — none of ‘em. It’s either New York or Philadelphia. This has created a chip on the shoulder.

New Jersey is a state with about 9.5 million people, 11th most in the country. It’s the densest state in the nation, with about 1,260 people per square mile, which is 20% more than No. 2 Rhode Island. (Just to compare, Wyoming has six — six! — people per square mile.) New Jersey’s GDP is $847 billion, just behind Poland and just ahead of Switzerland.

And we don’t get local news.

Live in the north part of the state, you get New York.

Live in the south part, you get Philadelphia.

Our bagels and pizza are better than New York’s.

Our cheesesteaks? That’s what Philly is known for, but they’re better in New Jersey.

Screw you, New York, and pffft, whatever, Philly.

We are New Jersey. We are not to be trifled with.

Which is why I’m hoping, begging, and otherwise panting at the idea of one of the three downstate New York casino licenses going to a Manhattan property.

Because if that happens, New Jersey may respond by building the single greatest casino complex known to mankind at the Meadowlands. I’m talking eighth wonder of the world.

This is Sopranos-style stuff right here. You make a move on us, New York? You try and siphon off our Atlantic City customers? We’re coming for you, and doubling down.

Settle down

Sorry. Got a little carried away there. But while New Jersey politicians haven’t gone to the mattresses just yet, a pair of them are already getting ready for battle.

State Sens. Paul Sarlo and Vin Gopal introduced legislation this year that would put a constitutional amendment on the November 2026 ballot asking voters if they want full casinos at the Meadowlands and/or Monmouth Park.

“This plants a flag to send a message to New York state that if they open a casino in Manhattan, that New Jersey is ready to respond to the competition,” Sarlo said.

To mix metaphors: Cards on the table, this isn’t a slam dunk.

Back in 2016, Jersey voters rejected a similar casino expansion by a 3-to-1 margin. But that ballot question was written like a mobbed-up garbage contact, with voters being asked if they wanted two casinos in two counties that were at least 72 miles from Atlantic City. Dumb question.

But if voters — my people — were asked specifically if they wanted a casino at the Meadowlands or Monmouth Park, I think they’d go for it, especially — really, only — if Manhattan ends up with one. (Though, if you ask me, the Monmouth Park option would be dead in the water, because (a) too residential out there, (b) not close enough to New York, and (c) just close enough to Atlantic City.)

To be fair, not everyone agrees.

Political watchers say maybe

Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship, isn’t exactly bullish on the prospects.

“Look, the fact is I have no idea, and I don’t think anybody really does,” Dworkin told me when I asked about the chances of success. “A tremendous effort was made to expand casinos outside of Atlantic City a few years back, and the public didn’t buy it.” 

Dworkin believes the problem goes deeper than just bad messaging. 

“I think the perception among a significant portion of the public is that casinos bring a lot of other things besides revenue and fun, and therefore people are hesitant,” he said.

Fair enough. But what about the New York competition angle that’s driving this whole thing? Dworkin is not convinced Jersey voters are thinking strategically about it.

“I’m not sure that New Jersey voters are going to necessarily want this,” he said.

But he does give credit to the sponsors for at least putting it to a vote.

“The benefit of the Sarlo and Gopal bill is that at least then you ask the voters. No one’s dictating this, that it has to happen,” he said. “But I think there’s a lot of public education and convincing that needs to get done before New Jersey voters are ready to expand beyond the borders of Atlantic City.”

Still, I think civic pride kicks in, and the Meadowlands is primed for a casino. Already has the Meadowlands Racing horse track, already has MetLife Stadium, already has the American Dream mall. Add in a few new roads — please, for the love of god — and build the grandest casino known to mankind, that would stuff it in New York’s face.

Let’s ask another political watcher. Surely Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University is with me, yeah?

Well, not exactly.

“As you know, New Jersey voters don’t necessarily share the same views about gambling as their elected representatives,” Rasmussen told me. “Historically there’s been resistance to casinos outside of Atlantic City. But that predates casinos on our borders, so it’s possible that New Jerseyans see things differently when competition is involved.”

The numbers back him up. Fairleigh Dickinson University last polled New Jersey voters on this question in 2022, and it got the same result as the failed ballot questions of both 2016 and 1974 — New Jersey voters still do not support casinos statewide.

But Rasmussen thinks timing and messaging could make all the difference.

“I think a lot depends on how much of a campaign the industry is willing to fund and whether the ballot question is in a year when we have high voter participation, like a presidential year, or very low turnout, like when the state legislature is at the top of the ticket,” he said.

The 2026 timing for this vote could be problematic. Off-year elections in New Jersey typically see much lower turnout, which means the most motivated voters — often those with strong opinions against casino expansion — could have outsized influence.

Still, Rasmussen isn’t ready to write off the possibility.

“I think it would take a major, sustained campaign to shift public opinion that appears to be pretty deeply entrenched,” he said. “I can offer you this: Voters would need to be convinced of a clear, specific benefit.”

Sarlo and Gopal’s bill does specify that 45% of the money the state makes off the deal would go to property taxes, which could appeal to voters. In New Jersey, property taxes is a topic that pops up in about one in every three conversations.

Industry slightly less bearish

But what about the industry perspective? I reached out to David Isaacson, vice president and partner at Spectrum Gaming Capital, to get a sense of how the gaming world would see this whole New Jersey-New York standoff.

His take? It’s complicated, especially when it comes to Atlantic City’s role in all this.

“I think the challenge New Jersey will continue to face is Atlantic City’s consistent opposition to expanded gaming elsewhere in the state,” Isaacson told me.

He has a point. Atlantic City’s casino interests have deep pockets and deeper political connections, and they’re not about to let North Jersey casinos cut into their action without a fight. But Isaacson doesn’t think Atlantic City’s doom-and-gloom predictions about New York competition are necessarily accurate.

“While Atlantic City will face some revenue impact when New York casinos open, I believe the effect will be less severe than predicted,” he said. “Many expect Atlantic City to be decimated, but I disagree. The market has strong customer loyalty and will remain significant despite increased competition.”

That loyalty factor is real. Anyone who’s spent time in Atlantic City knows there are regulars who’ve been playing the same slots for decades.

Isaacson believes the New York threat changes the political calculus in New Jersey.

“What’s likely to happen is that legislators will continue pursuing this issue with renewed determination,” he said. “Gaming expansion only needs to succeed once. Eventually voters may approve what they’ve previously rejected. The opening of downstate casinos in New York will likely reignite this debate in New Jersey.”

That’s the persistence play — keep putting it on the ballot until one year the stars align and voters approve it. 

As for the New York licenses themselves, Isaacson is betting on the incumbents — the existing racinos at Yonkers and Aqueduct — to get two of the three licenses. But when it comes to that third license, he’s skeptical about Manhattan locations.

“I have concerns about the viability of placing a casino in Manhattan,” he said. “Casinos cater to a specific clientele — gamblers — but Manhattan serves as home to millions of residents, families, and workers. Urban casinos face unique operational challenges in densely populated areas like NYC.”

It’s a blunt assessment, but he has a point. Manhattan real estate is expensive, tourists are fickle, and the kind of serious gamblers who keep casinos profitable might not want to deal with Midtown traffic just to play blackjack.

So maybe Atlantic City’s fears are overblown. Maybe a Manhattan casino won’t be the threat everyone thinks it will be. But that doesn’t matter for New Jersey politics — the perception of a threat is enough to keep casino expansion in the conversation.

In the immortal words of Tony Soprano: “There’s no geographical solution to an emotional problem.”

But I think he would be wrong in this case. Done right, a Meadowlands casino would dwarf anything done across the Hudson. Put me down for a “yes” vote.