Ranking The 8 Remaining Contenders For The New York City-Area Casino Licenses

We are less than three weeks away from the June 27 deadline for would-be downstate New York casino operators to submit their bids to the New York State Gaming Commission.

From there, it’s expected/hoped that final decisions will be made by the end of the calendar year, with three licenses up for grabs.

There are now eight would-be bidders, and I’ve decided to open a fake sportsbook to take fake wagers on which very real bids are going to get the nod.

The odds below are based on all three licenses being awarded, and the order serves as a ranking of likelihood.

Note: These are all mine. My thoughts. Pure vibes. I’m setting the market. And guess what? Limits start at $infinity. Place your fake bets, and if I think you’re sharp, I’ll move the odds.

Actually, I may move the odds tomorrow, when my much smarter co-worker Chris Altruda gives us his rankings, which — spoiler alert! — will look significantly different from mine.

In the meantime …

The massive favorites

Resorts World New York City -1200

The Genting Group owns and operates the racino at Queens Aqueduct Racetrack, and it has a $5 billion bid on the table, which includes a 2-million square foot expansion, a 1,600-room hotel, 350,000 square feet of both a casino and meeting space, a 7,000-seat arena, and 30 dining establishments.

Notably, here’s a list of opposition to the project: (crickets)

One potential hiccup: the little anti-money laundering kerfuffle in Nevada that resulted in a $10.5 million fine for Resorts World Las Vegas. Is it possible this stings the New York bid? Anything is possible, but the two racinos are still heavy favorites.

Empire City Casino -1200

The second racino, this one located at Yonkers, is owned by MGM. Empire City is floating a $2.2 billion project, with a 5,000-seat arena, new dining options, and a 9,000 square-foot sportsbook. While there is some minor opposition to building out the property, it probably won’t matter.

This is such a presumed lock that Yonkers Mayor Mike Spano recently urged the gaming commission to just OK the bid now so they could get started.

“The processes can be changed,” Spano said. “Let’s move forward at least with these two casinos, and then let the third casino happen organically.” 

Pushy, pushy!

The second tier

Metropolitan Park +200

New York Mets owner Steve Cohen, in partnership with Hard Rock, wants to build an $8 billion casino, hotel, and live music venue in the shadow of Citi Field.

While there has been plenty of vocal opposition, Cohen is one of those “won’t stop until you say yes” kind of fellas. He has the deep pockets, the deep connections, and the lobbyists to make this happen. Also in his favor: The community boards in Flushing, where the project would be built, blessed the project. Most community boards where casinos are being pitched want nothing to do with them. 

All told, this makes Cohen’s bid solid.

Caesars Palace Times Square +250

We have this bid, presented by Caesars Entertainment, in partnership with SL Green Realty and Jay Z’s Roc Nation, as the best shot for a Manhattan casino, IMHO.

They’re looking to build a $4 billion casino hotel smack in the middle of Times Square, including 250,000 feet of casino spread across eight floors, along with a 950-room hotel.

The local community board is against it. Broadway theater owners are against it. The teachers union is against it. But … It’s in the heart of the city. It would attract the world. Plus, Jay-Z is actively pitching it, even going up to Albany a few weeks ago for a sit down.

Is it the best Manhattan bid? Probably not. But it just feels, to me, that a casino fits in nicely with the whole Times Square vibe anyway.

The longshots

The Avenir +2000

Silverstein Properties and Greenwood Gaming & Entertainment want to build two towers over 1.8 million square feet in midtown. It would feature a 1,000-room hotel, a 1,000-seat hall, and an eight-story casino.

The project has some good graces in its favor, as Larry Silverstein, who heads up the bid, rebuilt the World Trade Center site after 9/11. Goodwill can only go so far, though, and this bid has to be considered a longshot. 

Biggest reason? Probably the location. Not a heavily trafficked area, 11th Avenue and 40th Street. It would have to be seen as an anchor and a destination, not as part of something that already exists, like the Caesars bid.

Freedom Plaza +3500

The Soloviev Group, along with Mohegan, is seeking to bring a $10 billion casino resort to Midtown East, in the shadow of the United Nations. They’re pitching a 1,200-room hotel, shops, a “democracy” museum, and 4.7 acres of waterfront park space. They’d also build over 1,300 apartments.

And the casino would be … underground.

This bid suffers from the same issue facing the other non-Caesars Manhattan bid: It’s not in Times Square. That alone makes it a longshot.

Bally’s Bronx +8000

Bally’s is proposing a casino resort on the site of a 192-acre, former Trump Organization-owned public golf course at Ferry Point Park. The 3-million-square-foot complex would have a casino, a 500-room hotel, and a 2,000-seat performance space.

All well and good, except it’s out in the East Bronx. While not quite the middle of nowhere — after all, there is no “middle of nowhere” in any of New York’s five boroughs — it’s not exactly an area that is drawing people to come spend the night.

The Coney +20000

The underdog of the underdogs, this project, via Thor Equities and Saratoga Holdings, is $3 billion casino bid. It would feature a 32-story hotel, a 2,500-seat concert space, retail, dining, a casino, the whole schmear.

There is a ton of opposition, and while Coney Island — located on the tip of Brooklyn — has seen some improvement over the last decade or so, it’s not what it was 75 years ago. Seems like an impossible get.