Counterpoint: An Alternate Ranking Of The 8 Expected New York Casino Bids

I see that, with his usual P.T. Barnum-esque flair, my Casino Reports cohort Jeff Edelstein has given his rankings for the eight expected bids that will vie for the three downstate casino licenses to be awarded by the New York State Gaming Commission.

The run-up, which is now on final approach ahead of the June 27 deadline to submit bids, has been equal parts arduous and amusing. Following state legislatures for things such as rezoning parklands isn’t exactly glamorous. And some of the proposals and promises from potential bidders have the feel of the “Marge vs. the Monorail” episode from The Simpsons.

In any case, Jeff has had his say, complete with betting odds, on how the various proposals rank in terms of likelihood of winning. Now, I have mine.

The frontrunners

1 and 1A: Resorts World and Empire City

Right off the bat, Jeff and I agree on something! But in this instance, even fools like us can identify a sure thing (or as close to a sure thing as there can be in this instance).

Regardless of how you rank the two track-based venues, both are practically guaranteed to claim two of the three available licenses, and with good reason.

Both venues have proven track records of generating revenue at both the local and state levels, and both will continue to do so with amenities on a grander scale. I would award the Resorts World proposal the No. 1 overall seed among the eight because it (a) has the backing of the Queens borough president; (b) pledges 100% union labor for both construction and gaming; (c) includes the bold plan to have 3,000 housing units dedicated to its employees on-site among the 5,000 units across the five boroughs pledged; and (d) would in some ways connect Aqueduct and Belmont.

I also like the idea of a grand expansion: $5 billion is audacious, 350,000 square feet of gaming space is audacious, and audacious is something Chicago failed to do when the city selected what I would call Bally’s run-of-the-mill $1.8 billion proposal for its downtown venue currently under construction. When competing for entertainment dollars, a casino should be a generational attraction firstly in terms of novelty and then in terms of revenue sustainability. Resorts World checks all the boxes in that regard.

That’s not to say Empire City isn’t bold. Retrofitting 160,000 square feet of gaming space to bring in full amenities that include table games, revamped food halls, and a sportsbook is bold. And the BetMGM brand travels when it comes to its customer database via its rewards program. It also has strong local backing from Yonkers Mayor Mike Spano.

It is a worthy proposal that fits the targets of what expansion should accomplish.

Four for one, one for four

This middle section is where Jeff and I diverge considerably. As someone who had an upfront seat to the Chicago casino bidding process as a city resident, some of my biases lean on the side of aggressive planning that is designed to have an urban casino equal parts destination for gamblers and spectacle to attract new ones.

3-6: Freedom Plaza (East Side of Manhattan), The Avenir (West Side of Manhattan), Metropolitan Park (Queens), Roc Nation/Caesars (Times Square)

It feels like there is very little separating the following three bids: Freedom Plaza, The Avenir, and Metropolitan Park.

Let’s start with why I’m dropping Metropolitan Park relative to Jeff, who ranked it third: It’s in Queens. That’s not a knock on Queens or the proposal itself. Hard Rock does not mess around when it comes to casinos, and everything about the $8 billion proposal is legit.

These rankings are about the expectation that the NYSGC will most likely award that third and final license to a Manhattan-based proposal. Freedom Plaza and The Avenir are better multiple additives to their respective locations, whereas the Times Square proposal feels more a casino shoehorned into an already crowded part of Manhattan.

Jay-Z may not have 99 problems when it comes to the Roc Nation/Caesars proposal, but the list of opponents in Times Square may be that long. Can Caesars compete with other entertainment options in the area? Sure. Can it provide revenue at a level expected of a Times Square location? I’m not so sure.

Additionally, both Freedom Plaza and The Avenir offer something Roc Nation/Caesars cannot: housing units, which is a hot-button issue in the New York City mayoral race. Freedom Plaza proposes 1,300-plus units, with 40% of them to be made available at “below market” rates. The Avenir counters with 100 “permanently affordable” units off-site.

Both groups have partnered with solid gaming operators. Freedom Plaza’s casino would be operated by Mohegan, a brand name familiar to New Yorkers who have made the run to Mohegan Sun in nearby Connecticut. The Avenir has teamed with Rush Street, which has a New York presence via Rivers in Schenectady.

So why Freedom Plaza leading this group? I think there are two difference-makers. One is the amount of housing units being made available. The second is the combination of Mohegan as an operator with a proposed site that has the potential to generate higher revenue per admission.

Both have heavy vehicular access points, and The Avenir gets a slight edge with the Lincoln Tunnel and Port Authority. But the Soloviev Group behind Freedom Plaza putting an entire complex — casino, hotel, housing units — within a five-minute walk of the United Nations has the feel of a better fit in terms of New York City’s status as an international tourist destination.

And to be snarky, there is no way a United Nations delegate from a foreign country is not going to visit that casino between rounds of peace talks that could save the world. If there is one thing everyone on this planet can agree upon, regardless of governance style, it’s gambling.

Thanks for bidding

Jeff and I agree these two proposals are bringing up the rear in this eight-horse race, with both largely forgotten or never remembered.

7) Bally’s Bronx

Local concerns aside, it’s very hard to take Bally’s seriously for a $4 billion casino complex until it proves itself in Chicago with a project half the price tag.

I’m old enough to remember Bally’s is rebranded Twin River, a Rhode Island-based operation that aggressively expanded with some properties in convenient fashion when Caesars had to divest as part of its Eldorado merger.

Even with Soo Kim taking Bally’s private via his hedge fund, this feels like a proposal where Bally’s is trying to walk and chew gum at the same time despite not showing itself capable based on some of the missteps in building the permanent venue in Chicago.

8) Coney Island

A nice idea in theory, but there has been little fanfare behind the proposal. Additionally, residents and local government are against it. That is almost always a fatal combination (see Hudson Yards).

I will, however, lament, if and when this bid falls short, not being able to in-person live-bet the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.