Resetting The New York Casino Rankings

It’s halftime. Well, kind of.

Seven of the Community Advisory Committees (CACs) for the eight applicants vying for the New York State Gaming Commission’s three $500 million downstate licenses have held the first of their two mandated public hearings. The Metropolitan Park group, fronted by Hard Rock and New York Mets owner Steve Cohen, will hold its initial hearing Tuesday, discussing plans for an $8 billion casino and entertainment venue adjacent to Citi Field in Flushing.

Public commentary spanning 26 hours across the seven hearings has run the gamut of emotions and opinions both for and against bringing a gambling venue to a community’s doorstep.

The Queens community where Resorts World wants to expand its operations into an integrated casino resort treated the long-time gaming company like a beloved uncle. Many members in its Coney Island counterpart viewed Thor Equities similar to how Ralph Kramden did his mother-in-law.

With no hearings scheduled the remainder of the week before resuming Monday, it is an opportune time to revisit my June rankings for licensee potential. That said, this specific process is merely to gage community support for the applicants to help determine if their bids will be presented to the NYSGC for consideration.

It also needs to be remembered that just because three licenses are available that doesn’t mean the NYSGC will award three licenses. It can choose to award one, two, or none. But given the $1.5 billion in licensing fees the state would collect issuing all three, that seems the most likely path.

The frontrunners

1. Resorts World (Previous Ranking: 1)

It would be a 1980 USA Hockey vs. USSR level of upset if Resorts World is not awarded a license. The operator is loved by the community. The business plan puts Resorts first to market in terms of expansion and higher revenue, at least one year ahead of any other applicant and at least five ahead of a licensee building from the ground up.

Going into this, the feeling was that not much separated Resorts World and fellow incumbent MGM Empire City. But give credit to Resorts World Strategy Chief & Legal Officer Kevin Jones and his team: They created that separation and lapped the field among applicants who have held their initial hearings.

2. MGM Empire City (1A)

MGM Empire City did little in the way of losing ground to the other six applicants not named Resorts World in its initial hearing, and the advantages of incumbency as an existing gaming venue plus strong support from Yonkers Mayor Mike Spano are two crucial aces to hold.

What the MGM-run racino has to do is fine-tune the edges of its proposal based on the feedback from the first hearing. That means addressing traffic concerns and offering more specifics on the benefits of the host community agreement it signed with the city of Yonkers.

3. The Avenir (4)

I’ve moved The Avenir to the top of the list among Manhattan-based proposals because it became evident during its hearing the love for Silverstein Properties among its tenants along the West Side is real. There is still opposition among other local residents, for sure, but public support is something the CAC is expected to value highly ahead of a vote to send an applicant forward.

Rush Street is a low-key solid additive to the mix with its gaming presence upstate. But this project rides heavily on Silverstein Properties’ shoulders. Silverstein has shown some flexibility regarding the design of its main structure, and the potential of 2,000 housing units in total plus a 10th Avenue NYC subway stop to help address traffic concerns could be what puts this bid over the top.

The second tier

4. Hard Rock (5)

As the only applicant yet to hold a public hearing, there is a lot at stake Tuesday afternoon at Queens Borough Hall. Hard Rock and Cohen move up mainly on potential: If they build on the community outreach outlined during the CAC initial meeting, they keep themselves in the upper half of the mix among the six applicants vying for what looks to be the final license.

But Hard Rock as a gaming presence must differentiate itself and likely offer the potential to generate more revenue than Resorts World — a staggeringly tall ask — since it seems unlikely two casinos can thrive nine miles apart.

5. Freedom Plaza (3)

The $11.1 billion Freedom Plaza proposal for the East Side of Manhattan ran into a notable volume of opposition among local residents at its public hearing last week. A primary complaint lodged against project backers The Soloviev Group was questioning why it needs a casino to build affordable housing on a parcel of land it has owned for nearly three decades.

It is a legitimate question, as are the concerns of a logistical bottleneck with a casino, two residential towers, the United Nations Plaza, and two high-traffic hospitals all along a 20-block span on the East Side of Manhattan. The trajectory for Freedom Plaza became more steep after its hearing.

6. Caesars Palace Times Square (6)

The different type of opposition that emerged from Caesars Palace Times Square compared to Freedom Hall is what puts the $5.4 billion proposal for a casino in the heart of Manhattan on a tougher road to hoe.

Creating even the appearance of an existential threat to the long-standing theater industry and Broadway is not the best look. That’s not to say Caesars has lacked effort in telling anyone who will listen it wants to be an additive to Times Square and not dominate it. The fact it does not offer housing units unlike the other two Manhattan-based proposals could be a mark against it.

With an uncertain economic future on multiple levels — personal, professional, and governmental — anything that is an additive to Times Square is also competing for the public’s discretionary income. It’s not exactly a zero-sum game, but if wallets tighten, it becomes more like one.

Still not feeling it

7. Bally’s Bronx (7)

If there is a silver lining for Bally’s, it is the fact that all the work New York City Mayor Eric Adams put in making sure Bally’s $4 billion proposal for Ferry Point would be heard by Bronx residents paid off in the sense that the community by and large supports it.

That gives it momentum to be forwarded by the CAC to the NYSGC and have a puncher’s chance at a license. Now the reality: Bally’s is still racing against the clock to open a $2 billion casino in Chicago in slightly more than a year, and Bally’s is still a highly leveraged company facing financial pressures.

8. The Coney (8)

A casino in Brooklyn was always going to be a tough sell, but it looks like Thor Equities really did not realize the level of angst and ire residents would show in opposition. Union support aside, there were few residents ready to welcome a $3.4 billion expansive gaming and entertainment venue to Coney Island.

Couple that with CAC member Marissa Solomon being a tough sell on the proposal, and The Coney stands a real chance of being a bid denied.

Scheduled upcoming hearings

Sept. 8: The Avenir
Sept. 9: Metropolitan Park, Bally’s
Sept. 10: The Coney
Sept. 11: Caesars Palace Times Square
Sept: 15: Freedom Plaza, Resorts World
Sept. 16: Metropolitan Park, Empire City