Crystal Ball Hints At Changes For Las Vegas Visitors, Gamblers By 2030

It is perhaps the most constant conversation in the casino industry today — one that generates no shortage of opinions and insights.

The costs associated with traveling to Las Vegas are out of control.

The high resort fees, the demise of free parking, and the $25 bottles of Miller Lite are well-known amid the challenging economy. There is another layer to this saga: how Vegas’ tenuous relationship with skyrocketing prices may impact the marketplace down the road. 

What will the hypothetical Las Vegas casino floor look like in 2030?

We talked to a number of people in tune with the city to predict how the gambling and tourism landscape will change over the next five years. There were varied opinions, even disagreements, but overall it is clear that the scene will be different.

Looking into the neon ball

Those we talked to voiced some trepidation about predicting Vegas’ future since the city is always reinventing itself. 

“Look back five years ago, and the city was dealing with the COVID shutdown, so obviously it’s different now,” said Marc Meltzer, a journalist who details gambling activities. “But five years before that, 10 years ago, Las Vegas and everything with it is so much different from now.

“We think these costs might lead to some changes, but overall Las Vegas will be much different in five years because the city is always changing.”

Locally based podcaster Jeff Fargo is another one who thinks speculating on what comes next in Vegas is as risky as sticking with a 16 against a blackjack dealer’s face card. Nonetheless, he does feel confident that the current rising costs will facilitate some level of change. 

“Vegas is now in a place where it needs to make a major shift in how it does business,” said Fargo, the entertaining and opinionated creator of the Fargo Talk podcast. “Look at the number of people coming into Harry Reid Airport. The numbers are down. Look at the stock prices of the publicly traded gaming companies. They’re down. There is definitely some consumer pushback.”

The Clark County Department of Aviation announced that its airline passenger statistics were significantly lower in February compared to the same month a year ago.  

The Las Vegas Sands Corporation’s stock price is down around 30% from a year ago. MGM Resorts International has shown a similar drop.

Entertainment vs. gambling

Fargo related the experience of a visitor friend and concluded that inflated costs from airline tickets, to hotel rooms, to resort fees, to food and beverage can impact tourists’ desire to gamble. 

“We went to see Dead & Company at the Sphere and tickets were like $250, and then dinner and drinks were another couple hundred more dollars. All these insane prices make it hard for someone to then go gamble, especially when for many people, [another] casino is probably a close drive away from their hometown.”

That a Vegas anecdote centered on the Sphere, the glitzy new concert venue, and not the action on the floor of the Aria or Caesars is an indication of how the city is already changing. 

“Soon people won’t be calling Las Vegas the gambling capital of the country,” Fargo said. “They will call it — and perhaps some are doing it now — the sports and entertainment capital.

“We have a football team and a hockey team, soon baseball and probably the NBA. Las Vegas is now a sports and entertainment destination for concerts, the Super Bowl, Final Fours, all that, and there is the bandwidth of hotels to accommodate everyone.”

Those heads in beds are good news for the casino executives crunching the hospitality numbers — but not so much for those on the gaming side of the business, according to Meltzer. He finds that visitors for big events such as the NFL Draft and the recent WrestleMania aren’t looking to play the pass line or double down.  

UFC fights and entertainers with residencies in the city are filling the void since Vegas’ near-monopoly on gambling disappeared. 

Tipping point?

While there has been much talk about Vegas prices negatively impacting tourism, casinos operators have yet to show much interest in rolling them back. It’s Business 101. People are still coming and paying all the added fees. 

“Two things to note about all the comments regarding the increase in cost for Las Vegas,” said Dr. Amanda Belarmino, an associate professor at UNLV who examines consumer behavior. “First, there are still several bargain options like lower-priced hotels, especially off the Strip, that guests can have when they visit. Additionally, the numbers have borne out that guests are no longer coming here to seek value experiences but luxury experiences.”

Even luxury comes with a price point many aren’t willing to cross. Sensing this, Meltzer is focused on analyzing the publicly traded gaming/hotel companies such as MGM’s quarterly reports that could be a precursor to changes.  

“People are still paying these prices to come, so the casinos see no reason so far to incentivize gambling,” Meltzer said. 

He noted that Boyd Gaming has indicated it is near the maximum it can increase prices.

The 2030 Las Vegas casino experience 

When consumers do go to Las Vegas in five years, likely traveling around town in a driverless taxi, they may see these changes on the casino floor.

More electronics, fewer humans

Advances in technology could result in human dealers being replaced. In fact, it is already happening. 

“The COVID reopening era created an electronic table game boom,” said John Mehaffey, who, along with his wife Kristina, runs Vegas Advantage. “Some major Strip casinos have lost 20 or more [human-run] tables since our January 2020 survey. This trend will continue.”

Expect fewer high fives going around a raucous table and more automated voices from hybrid games and thump sounds from the Bubble Craps machine. 

The expected influx of electronic games may not sound appealing to veteran gamblers, but they can be advantageous for both the house and those players looking to maximize their budgets. 

“Some table games are completely electronic now and some hybrid games have one dealer where four were traditionally needed,” said Scott Roeben, founder of Vital Vegas. “This allows the house to provide these games at reasonable minimums because the alternative is prohibitive minimums to pay for labor.” 

Table minimums are well on their way to being the line of demarcation for Vegas casinos.

Meltzer expects electronic games to be popular among the general gamblers seeking a $5 or $10 table minimum that once were commonplace up and down the Strip. 

There is one electronic variation that may see a diminished role come 2030. That is the continuous shuffle machine used for blackjack, according to Mike Aponte, a former member of the MIT card counting team. He believes players have resoundingly rejected its presence. 

“Casinos certainly would like to use the continuous shuffle machine more in the future because that means more hands dealt per hour, but they never really have taken off because many players avoid them,” said Aponte. “Players aren’t necessarily playing them because it prevents them from counting cards; it’s more that a lot of players find them to be bad luck.”

Changing floor plans

If fewer people are gambling while electronic and hybrid games become more prevalent, the casino floor may look different. 

“I think older casino floors will continue to shrink, even if nothing replaces them,” said Mehaffey. “The luxury end of the market has enough retail and restaurant space to prevent contraction to those casino floors.”

Meltzer believes gamblers will soon have changing perspectives about the casino floor. 

“The high limit room we now know will become the ultra-high limit room, and the high limit room will become the casino floor,” said Meltzer. “In the future, if you want to play with a human dealer, then it will come with a premium — likely be at a higher-end place — and have much higher minimums.” 

Customer class delineation

The lines between the types of gambler to which casinos outwardly market has always been a part of Las Vegas, but expect those lines to be clearer come 2030.  

“You’re going to be able to tell if a place caters towards a lower-level bettor by the amount of electronic machines it has,” said Fargo. “You’re going to see a lot of electronic machines in places like Excalibur or Luxor.” 

Fargo believes the off-Strip casinos that prioritize locals with both pricing and experiences will continue to bring in gamblers. Locals already try to avoid the Strip and Downtown because of the crowds and prices that tourist spots bring.

He points out that places such as M Resort, Durango, and Red Rock should retain an active casino floor since they look to satisfy their base clientele’s needs, which differ from visitors.

Meltzer cites the South Point, a Michael Gaughan-owned property, as an example of a casino that can prosper. It offers a welcoming environment with lower costs that attracts locals for its casino and sportsbook offerings. 

Disappearing comps

For many rank-and-file gamblers, it feels like drink tickets and a free meal have already gone the way of the Sands or Stardust as a historical piece of Vegas lore. Even those wagering in the low five figures are being offered fewer comps.

Comps can create a negative impact on a publicly traded company’s balance sheet.

Still, it’s too soon to write a death certificate for comps, which may survive at a lesser scale.

“While comps are tightening at many Las Vegas casinos, especially at chains, I predict these will still exist in five years across all segments,” said Mehaffey. “Independent casinos must use comps to remain competitive with the larger companies, which will force all operators to keep them. 

“There will always be significant competition for high-value players. However, as loyalty club technology advances, over-comping will likely disappear as exact player values become easier to calculate.”

Despite the trend, Roeben sees a bright future for freebies.

“It seems counterintuitive, but I think comps will actually get better in five years,” he says. “Las Vegas isn’t going to keep growing exponentially, and we’ve already seen some softness due to commoditization. As demand slips, casinos have to compete more aggressively and do that with perks.”

Derek Stevens’ Circa is one of Las Vegas’ brightest gaming spots since he opened it in 2020 with the idea of constructing a gambling and sports betting destination. Stevens is one of the few casino owners still offering welcoming deals to get people into the door and onto the floor. That includes an “all-in summer package” with a two-night $400 stay that includes fees along with a food and beverage credit, which may set the trend. 

For now, however, such deals are an anomaly.

3:2 vs. 6:5

What once was a standard payout ratio in blackjack now feels like a perk. The 3:2 is less common, and the less appealing 6:5 has become the norm. 

“I never thought people would accept 6:5,” Aponte said, “but they have and showed the casinos that they’re willing to play at this number, so I don’t think it is going anywhere.”

Mehaffey, though, sees some light ahead in the 3:2 tunnel. 

“In late 2024, Palms started paying 3:2 on all blackjacks, including a $5 game. The Strat now pays 3:2 at most tables. Limits for 3:2 blackjack at higher-end Strip properties are the same or lower than a year or two ago. I think Las Vegas hit the ceiling of what players will tolerate, and casinos that fell behind are making player-friendly changes to become more competitive.” 

The simpler, the better

With younger people showing less interest in gambling compared to previous generations, the next wave of those wandering the casino floors will be looking for gratification in other ways. That likely means simpler games to understand and ones that rely on AI.  

“It makes sense that casinos in the future will feature electronic simulations since that is what younger people are more interested in,” said Aponte. “They are on their phones playing games. Traditional casino games seem old to them, so they are going to need games that appeal to their style.”   

Roeben believes it is imperative for casino operators to make changes that fit the needs of newer gamblers rather than trying to force them to play like their parents.  

“The most elusive customer for casinos has been young guests,” he said. “They don’t have the same interest in gambling, and what’s being done on the floor with bigger, brighter, and more flair isn’t really making a difference. It’s a lack of innovation. The next generation of players doesn’t see sitting and pushing a button or pulling a lever as enjoyable. They want experiences.” 

He identified the Horseshoe as one casino making this type of move after it closed its sportsbook and replaced it with an arcade. Its machines make about as much per day as slots. 

Meltzer shares a vision of the 2030 Las Vegas casino floor that feels not like what Steve Wynn would want, but rather in line with the tastes of P.T. Barnum.

“There are going to be more carnival games,” he said. “Things like Plinko, claw machines, or games like War.”

Step right up, ladies and gentlemen. The Las Vegas of the near future just may resemble the innocent county fair of your youth.

Either way, whether you’re playing blackjack or ring toss, the game is always tilted in the house’s favor.