The NFL Preseason Is Not Only For ‘Degenerates’

You’ve heard it a number of times.

A phrase tossed around this time of year from those unfamiliar with the machinations of sports betting. 

“Only degenerates bet on NFL preseason games.” 

For those who bet with ROI in mind, it’s a tiresome cliche. 

There is no difference between cashing a winning Los Angeles Chargers -110 ticket and a Dodgers -110 wager during August.

Nonetheless, there has always been a lingering stigma about wagering on NFL preseason games. 

Well, that longstanding misnomer seems to be dissipating in the new era of legalized sports betting. There is now more considerable interest in the games that once were categorized as “meaningless.” 

That means the honey hole where some handicappers have long prospered is now attracting others in an evolving marketplace. 

Practice games, real money

Professional sports bettor Chuck Edel heard all those snide sayings about those who wager on NFL preseason games a multitude of times over the two-plus decades he has been in the action. 

“Whenever I heard that I always would say ‘I’m laughing all the way to the bank,’” said Edel (@chuckedel), the 2024 champion of the Circa Friday Football Invitational handicapping contest.

“I wish I could bet preseason football 12 months out of the year.” 

Today the Las Vegas based Edel hears different chatter.

“Now they tell me I was right all along.”

Sportsbooks have adapted, and the NFL has basically become a 12-month opportunity for action. Lines are readily posted on the likes of DraftKings and FanDuel well in advance of preseason games including the Hall of Fame game between the Chargers and Lions on Aug. 31. 

Even though these games are now more convenient to wager on, the limits are noticeable. Bookmakers don’t get enough two-way action, therefore they avoid overexposing themselves to the bettors who have profited by zagging when so many others have previously zigged away from the preseason. 

Handicapper Ed Jones, known as Ed The StatMan, has also valued these games for a number of years because they aligned with his strengths. 

“As a football lover, and especially with a love of college football, I always enjoyed preseason games, because at first I was curious to see how the college stars would translate in an NFL setting,” said Jones (@edthestatman).  “From a betting perspective, I looked at it as a bet on the preseason pays the same as a bet on the regular season. “  

Perhaps there is no finer example of the differences between sharps and squares than the willingness to wager on the NFL preseason. 

Those games often led the public to fall into the trap of groupthink formed by what Jones believes came from mainstream media portrayals that preseason tilts were just “practice.” 

A resulting viewpoint is that prohibited bettors from seeing the edge that was present during these games according to Edel. 

Outwork the competition 

Prior to the days of the NFL Network beaming preseason games to a national audience, Jones and Edel relied on old school handicapping. 

That included combing through newspapers (yes, the print version) and doing the legwork to produce data about what players would see action. Their handicapping then expanded when this new thing called the internet came around in the late 1990s, and they had the opportunity to scroll through newspapers from all over the country. 

“I could then learn how every NFL coach was approaching each game,” said Jones. 

His handicapping work around this time also came from the eye test since he saw plenty of preseason matchups played at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia. Jones’ friends who were also Eagles season ticket holders often had little interest in preseason games so they just gave their tickets away. 

The Harbaugh effect 

Perhaps the worst kept secret of preseason wagering was the interest Baltimore’s John Harbaugh had in winning games. From 2016-23, the Ravens won a ridiculous 24-straight preseason games. Those early to decipher how much Harbaugh emphasized these games were the beneficiaries. Overall though at the time, the talk about Baltimore’s preseason goals was mostly among those in betting circles while being glossed over in media coverage geared for a broader NFL audience. 

“Always bet on (John) Harbaugh to win,” said Ryan Hyatt (@RyanHyattMedia), a popular sports media content provider jokingly responded when asked about the common narratives surrounding wagering on the NFL’s preseason. 

Keep in mind that the Ravens have now gone 2-4 over the past two preseasons. 

Another common handicapping angle is to lean on the under in these games since teams rarely allow their primary skill position players to play meaningful minutes. Last year during the first two weeks of the preseason, the under hit 78% of the time. 

The democratization of information

While Edel would prefer NFL preseason games remained off the public’s radar, he understands why so many are now interested in something they once dismissed.

“There is now so much information out there for sports bettors,” Edel said. “All the sports betting talk shows and social media accounts have made sports bettors more educated. They now know what to look for during the preseason and how to bet it.”

He adds that the edge he once had on preseason games isn’t what it used to be since “so many more people are now jumping aboard.” 

The current sports betting media ecosystem that exploded over the past few years is now filled with so many different topics because those content providers are always searching for engaging topics to draw an audience. The NFL preseason has become great late summer fodder for those who talk sports and betting. 

All leading to the public’s perception regarding these games to change according to Hyatt. Now more bettors are receptive to wagering on the preseason like they are with the NFL Draft. 

There is a connection between these two betting options says the founder of TheRaiderLand.com. 

“For the most part, I look at it like the draft,” said Hyatt.  “It’s an information-based wager. Coaches will tell you how they are gonna approach most games and who they will play.”

What those coaches say about player availability during the preseason might be the only time of the year they are candid and truthful when a microphone is present. Leaning heavily on this acquired information is what has allowed Edel to have such a profitable preseason portfolio. 

“Preseason is the one sport where bookmakers first put out lines without all the important information,” said Edel. 

During the Ravens impressive 24-game streak the books kept raising Baltimore’s money line price but that didn’t deter the bettors with a knowledge of Harbaugh’s tendencies who still happily played it no matter the number. 

Since that information about all the NFL teams is now being distributed instantaneously via social media, veterans like Edel and Jones, along with those new to preseason wagering must act quicker than ever in the chess match against bookmakers. 

“All the info about the games is shared now on social media along with being circulated through text group chats and discords,” said Jones. “And when the information about a game plan or how long starters are going to play is being shared, the line has already moved significantly whether it’s the books getting the information first and moving the number or the really sharp bettors who may have access to beat writers or people inside organizations betting into and moving the numbers.”

Jones contends that has made wagering on the preseason much harder today than compared to just a few years ago.

Besides scrutinizing every tweet made by NFL beat reporters regarding the upcoming game plan and who is going to play (and for how long),  linguistic skills are necessary to handicap the preseason. 

Edel’s fluency in coachspeak is one of the reasons he has long found success on this board. 

“You have to listen to what and how the coaches are talking in press conferences or see their quotes,” Edel said. “LIke if you hear ‘we are going to work on our offense,’ that might be when to consider the over.”

Futures bets and changing seasons

Being a successful preseason bettor doesn’t mean that process will seamlessly translate to regular season wins.

“Handicapping the preseason and the regular is two different animals,” Edel said. “In the preseason you can hear one coach say his starters will play the entire first half and the other coach say his starters will only play the first quarter. Something like that can move a line like six points, that happens a lot in the preseason but you rarely see a move like that in the regular season.” 

If the newfound public interest  hasn’t made wagering on preseason games difficult enough, now there are fewer ones being played as well. Gone is the four-game preseason schedule replaced in 2021 by the current three contests. The change impacted the previous importance placed on the third game of the preseason when teams approached it as a dry run for Week 1 and had their starters take a significant amount of snaps. 

The shorter preseason has had another trickle down effect on wagering. 

“The big impact on preseason betting is the controlled scrimmages now being run,” said Jones. “There are no more patterns to pick up on as the controlled scrimmages (where two teams hold joint practice the week of their preseason game) are where all the ‘real work’ is being done, and some coaches have their 1’s and 2’s go hard during those practices. 

“The past few years, we have run into instances where the coach a few hours before the preseason game says they got their work in for the week and does not take the game seriously at all.”

There has been some speculation tossed around that in a future collective bargaining agreement, the preseason will be eliminated in favor of an extended regular season. 

That hypothetical would be missed opportunities for those like Edel and Jones but a win for the books who usually have the edge with their precise regular season lines. However, it would then just lead into a different move in their ongoing chess match with bookmakers.

“The movement to more regular season games could be a better thing for bettors as more opportunities become provided in the ever-expanding player prop markets,” said Jones.