Election Betting Odds All Moving In Trump’s Direction Ahead Of Tuesday’s Debate

It’s unlikely that Tuesday night’s presidential debate in Philadelphia between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will have as much impact on November’s election as the last presidential debate did. (You know, the one that led fairly directly, if not immediately, to President Joe Biden dropping out and Harris taking his place atop the Democratic ticket.)

Still, this face-to-face meeting between the candidates, a little under two months out from the election, could prove to be the biggest odds-impact moment for the remainder of the cycle.

Then again, this is an election year that has seen one candidate convicted on 34 felony counts and shot at by a would-be assassin, and another candidate become her party’s nominee in the space between the Republican and Democrat conventions. It’s been eventful, to say the least. So the biggest possible “October surprise” would be if there is no “October surprise.”

But of the scheduled events, this debate stands out for its potential to make up minds and swing momentum.

And according to the wagering odds, coming into the debate, that momentum belongs to Trump.

Legit legal wagering?

Before we dive into the numbers, a note on how and where people can wager: Based on a judge’s ruling this past Friday, it now appears to be more legal than ever to bet on the election in the U.S. You won’t find a market to bet on Harris or Trump in your DraftKings or FanDuel app (at least not yet), but Judge Jia Cobb on Friday overturned the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) order preventing exchange operator Kalshi from offering political markets.

In response, Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour stated, “For the first time in 100 years, Americans will have access to legal election markets at scale.”

Kalshi, however, does not have Harris vs. Trump markets on its site just yet. The home page just has a note, “Election markets are coming to Kalshi!”

In the meantime, PredictIt, another peer-to-peer exchange-style wagering site that has been operating in a somewhat gray area, does have those markets posted. And it’s been the lone holdout recently in favoring Harris by a clear margin. But not anymore — now even on PredictIt, the race is back to being a tossup.

As of the posting of this article, Trump was priced at 52 cents (equivalent to -108 sportsbook odds) and Harris at 51 cents (-104). On Sept. 3, Harris led 55-48. At her peak on Aug. 12, she led 59-43. At Trump’s peak on July 15, he led Biden 69-28.

In other markets that ask similar questions (but allow customers to get more money down, since each market has an $850 per-person limit): “Which party wins the presidency in 2024?” still favors Democratic over Republican, 53-51; “Woman elected president in 2024?” has “yes” at 51 cents and “no” at 49 cents; and “Harris the 47th U.S. president?” is exactly 50-50.

PredictIt an apparent outlier

So, according to PredictIt users, the race is a true coin flip.

At various more traditional-style sportsbook sites, offshore and overseas, it’s not quite dead-even. All of those books had it around even a week ago but have increasingly moved toward Trump the last few days.

One offshore book, Pinnacle, where Trump was more than a 2/1 favorite over Biden but where Harris became a small favorite heading into the Democratic National Convention, has Trump a clear, if close, favorite at -131 and “Field (any other candidate)” an underdog at +108.

At bet365, a sportsbook that is regulated in the U.S. and offers election betting outside the U.S., Trump was -120 early Monday morning and Harris was +100. By mid-morning, it was -138 and +110.

Most of the offshores are in that general range.

In an election run-up that has already seen several dramatic swings, Tuesday’s debate holds the potential to either widen Trump’s perceived lead or reverse the favorite and underdog once again.

Our wagering advice: Wait and see which candidate Drake puts money on, and then fade it hard.