Slots Mathematician Takes To Reddit For Eye-Opening AMA

Go big or go home when it comes to playing slots.

That was the surprising recommendation during a recent Reddit AMA (“ask me anything”) with someone representing to be a “mathematician for slot games” with the Reddit handle Trickishwheat8. They claim to create the mathematical models that run land-based slot games.

To be fair, much of the language used during the AMA lent credence to that claim – “That being said, modern RNGs (cryptographically secure pseudo-random number generators) might as well be true random,” as an example) – and so, at least for our purposes today, let’s assume this person is exactly who they claim to be.

With that caveat out of the way, let’s dive into some of the more interesting tidbits unearthed in the fascinating AMA session.

Max it out

One Redditor asked a hypothetical question: “If I were forced to play $10K in Vegas and aimed for the best outcome, how would you approach this?”

Sticking to slots, the mathematician advised placing the max bet on the machine with a upper and lower limit in mind.

Basically, play the slot at max value until you win what you set out to win, or lose what you’re comfortable losing. After that, on to the next slot.

“The reason for this is because I am playing the volatility of a game,” they wrote. “If you play as many games as you can, you become the average, i.e. losing money. If you play in short bursts, you have a higher chance of landing in an up position compared to the average because the range the game might award is much bigger the less you play. So, it’s a game between getting lucky with the volatility and not becoming the average.”

In short: Variance is your friend when playing slots. Play a lot for a little bit and hope lady luck shines on you. But grind away at minimum bets, the -EV of the RTP will grind away your bankroll.

“In this case, I would sit at a machine and put in, say $100. I then set a mental limit of $50 and $150,” they wrote. “When my total amount in the machine hits either of those limits, I would cash out and go to a different one. The reason for this is because of volatility. A game is guaranteed to take my money over the long run but, short term, it might pay really well. In reality, we could get anything each spin but, the more we play, the more we approach that definite average.”

Random, or pre-determined?

Many questions were variations of a theme: When someone hits the “spin” button, is the outcome predetermined, or is there a random aspect to it?

The answer? Yes.

“It can be either, depending on the game,” our friendly neighborhood mathematician wrote. “All games will make their decision after you press spin. However, this can be picking from a bag of outcomes, so the game basically plays out a script, or it can make a bunch of RNG (random number generator) calls to determine the outcome on the fly. Any way, the outcome will be random and independent of any other spin after you hit the button.”

A somewhat deeper question was asked later, with the questioner wondering if what appears on screen influences the rest of the spin. Basically, if a cherry pops up on the first reel, does that mean there will be more cherries to follow?

That answer? Negative.

“Usually, the game makes all the RNG calls while the reels are spinning and the game behaves according to what was picked … it’s all done before the first reel stops.”

Bonus baby

When it comes to slots, one of the more exciting elements is getting to the bonus rounds of games. Here you might get free spins, or get to choose this, that, or the other thing. It would appear there is some level of control at this point in the game.

Well, not so much. Let’s say you’re playing a slot where the bonus game is “pick a card.”

“Generally, this is handled two ways: Either the game decides what you’re getting and makes the card you pick that,” they wrote. “Alternatively, it randomizes where the prizes are. In this, you do indeed pick but it’s random. So, either a random pick is made for you or you pick and (get a) random outcome. Mathematically, this is the same thing.

“A growing number of games have a list of predefined outcomes,” they continued. “An outcome is randomly picked when the feature triggers and the screen plays out the script to get there.”

How about a plug?

Asked which slot machines are the most interesting or his/her favorite, the mathematician replied, “I’m a big fan of Light and Wonder’s stuff. I think their U.S. teams really go for quality over quantity. The Invaders from Planet Moolah family are good. I also liked Spartacus a lot. Their stuff is in all the casinos.

“I’ve seen a lot of unique stuff in the iGaming world. I really like the nonstandard games but I don’t recall any names any more.”

Jackpot city

Those jackpots are awfully tantalizing. Just watching those numbers race northward gives any slot player a thrill. Which is the point. How to actually win one?

“The majority of cases are pure sequence of game events like “play max wager > get into free spins > land a certain combo” or “trigger a hold and spin > fill the screen while a red coin is there.” Basically, the RNG lands in a way to get the very specific hole on the Plinko board.”

Having said that, there are certain games that must hit by a certain number, and the chances of winning those “scale up as the progressive grows up to a value it must hit by.”

Walk on by

It’s an age-old question or perhaps urban legend: Are some slots on a casino floor looser than others, and is it because of where they’re located? 

Maybe, maybe not, although …

“Any machine can be set to play approved paytable, so you could have two machines playing different versions on the same floor,” they wrote. “So you cannot get odds outside of the versions I define, but you would have two versions going.”

And finally…

How do you sleep at night?

There were questions of this variety, summed up like this: Your job creates gambling addicts, how do you live with that knowledge?

The answer given was thoughtful and considered.

“Modern slots are very regulated. They could do a little more to be fair and up front but it’s not zero. From my perspective, a player can know the expected return and odds of the game before playing. What an adult does with their own money willingly is on them. I’m more than happy to provide an hour of entertainment, especially if they know the risks beforehand. I don’t just take the money; my games provide a service of fun and entertainment in exchange for it. This transaction works for the majority of players without harm or malice.

“I think I can also lament that the industry does not put enough of the profits into researching, establishing, and helping those people that become problem gamblers,” they continued. “It’s irresponsible to just delete an entire industry for a minority but it is also irresponsible to ignore the problems it creates, which it does. So, I believe I can feel fine with myself while also criticizing my role and working to improve it.”