Ruddock Report: The Odds Of Online Casino Expansion
Five states size up as viable contenders to legalize in next legislative sessions
Our monthly look at the online gambling landscape includes the current legal and regulatory scene, prospective online casino and online poker states, and significant trends to watch.
The legalization of online casinos is at an inflection point. Eight states have legalized online casinos (nine if you count online poker in Nevada), but it’s been a slog to get to that point since 2013’s initial wave of legalization in New Jersey, Delaware, and Nevada.
But, especially as the Canadian province of Alberta gets its regulated iGaming market going this week, everyone is looking for the next wave that radically expands online casinos’ national footprint.
With budget pressures and the rise of prediction markets (which jeopardize states’ sports betting revenue), there is some hope that the 2027-2028 legislative sessions could turn eight states into a dozen or more.
As we get prepped for 2027, this column attempts to handicap every state’s realistic chance of legalizing real-money online casino gambling during the 2027-2028 legislative window. It’s the starting point for the next 24 months and will be updated when significant developments emerge and legislation is introduced. These odds are fluid.
Handicapping every state’s chances in 2027
The real contenders
As detailed last month, there aren’t many strong online casino candidates, but five states by my count are worth keeping a close eye on over the next two years, with Virginia at the top of the list:
- Virginia: 2027-2028 chances: ~35%
- Maryland: 2027-2028 chances: ~20%
- New York: 2027-2028 chances: ~20%
- Indiana: 2027-2028 chances: ~15%
- New Hampshire: 2027-2028 chances: ~15%
The dark horses
Legalization is plausible in the medium term if momentum builds in the following dozen states. That said, a sense of urgency could develop over a budget deficit and catapult these states into the category above.
- Massachusetts: 2027-2028 chances: ~10%
- Ohio: 2027-2028 chances: ~10%
- Illinois: 2027-2028 chances: ~10%
- Louisiana: 2027-2028 chances: ~10%
- North Carolina: 2027-2028 chances: ~10%
- Arkansas: 2027-2028 chances: ~5-10%
- Iowa: 2027-2028 chances: ~5-10%
- Kentucky: 2027-2028 chances: ~5%
- Missouri: 2027-2028 chances: ~5%
- Tennessee: 2027-2028 chances: ~5%
- Colorado: 2027-2028 chances: ~5%
- New Mexico: 2027-2028 chances: ~5%
The longshots
These 20 states face significant hurdles, from stakeholder divides to an anti-gambling culture to other legislative priorities.
- Arizona: 2027-2028 chances: <5%
- Florida: 2027-2028 chances: <5%
- California: 2027-2028 chances: <5%
- Minnesota: 2027-2028 chances: <5%
- Mississippi: 2027-2028 chances: <5%
- Montana: 2027-2028 chances: <5%
- Washington: 2027-2028 chances: <5%
- Wisconsin: 2027-2028 chances: <5%
- Kansas: 2027-2028 chances: <5%
- Vermont: 2027-2028 chances: <5%
- Oregon: 2027-2028 chances: 1-2%
- Nebraska: 2027-2028 chances: 1-2%
- North Dakota: 2027-2028 chances: 1-2%
- South Dakota: 2027-2028 chances: 1-2%
- Wyoming: 2027-2028 chances: 1-2%
- Oklahoma: 2027-2028 chances: 1-2%
- Nevada: 2027-2028 chances: 1-2%
- Hawaii: 2027-2028 chances: 1-2%
- Georgia: 2027-2028 chances: 1-2%
- Alaska: 2027-2028 chances: 1-2%
The black swans
There are five states that are highly unlikely to legalize online casino gambling due to structural hurdles and longstanding cultural opposition to gambling of all stripes.
- Alabama: 2027-2028 chances: <1%
- Texas: 2027-2028 chances: <1%
- South Carolina: 2027-2028 chances: <1%
- Idaho: 2027-2028 chances: <1%
- Utah: 2027-2028 chances: <1%
2025-2026 online casino bills
The Ruddock Report will revise this list as new bills are introduced.
Active bills
Illinois
- HB 4797, sponsored by Rep. Edgar González Jr.
- HB 4802 (poker-only), sponsored by Rep. Edgar González Jr.
I’ve likened Illinois to the little engine that can’t, as there have been efforts to legalize online casinos in the state going back more than a decade.
There is certainly high-level support, as Gov. JB Pritzker called iCasinos an idea worth exploring last year. Pritzker’s budget proposal for the next fiscal year said nothing about online gambling but did propose increasing taxes on existing casino table games.
More importantly, until the politically powerful VGT industry is on board, which is unlikely to happen anytime soon, legalization will remain out of reach. In January 2026, the team at Citizens met with Accel Entertainment where it was told by Accel management that “there is no shot” of iGaming legalization in the state.
And recall that a March 13, 2025, legislative hearing turned into an anti-legalization struggle session, when the anti-online crowd marched in small business owners to hammer home its point.
Rep. Edgar González Jr. has filed two bills in 2026. The first resembles last year’s effort, HB 3080, and the second is an online poker-only bill that has no text and simply reads, “Amends the Illinois Gambling Act. Adds a Section concerning online poker. Contains a Section heading only.”
Also working against Illinois is the ongoing effort to repeal the recently enacted city of Chicago tax on sports betting, and the authorization of VGTs in Chicago.
New York
New York has frustrated online gambling supporters for more than a decade. Last year’s efforts barely got off the ground as the state was busy handing out downstate casino licenses. Now that the downstate casino licenses have been awarded, there is growing optimism that the legislature can turn its attention to online expansion, but there are still several hurdles to clear.
The major roadblock is tied to the state’s labor unions and cannibalization concerns. With three new casinos coming, that means thousands of new union jobs and three new land-based properties to voice concerns about online cannibalization. Nor are the three casino operators (Bally’s, Hard Rock, and Genting) online-focused companies.
And New York Gov. Kathy Hochul hasn’t shown any signs of supporting iCasinos.
Washington, D.C.
- CB 260656, sponsored by Councilmember Wendell Felder
A new bill in Washington, D.C. would legalize online casino games while simultaneously prohibiting sweepstakes sites. The bill would impose a licensing fee of $2 million and set the tax rate at 25%, with an additional 2% local fee.
A hearing was held on May 4, but after four hours of robust debate, no vote was taken.
Inactive bills
Hawaii
The bills did not meet the legislative deadline and are effectively dead for the year.
Maryland
Sen. Ron Watson introduced two separate bills, one to legalize online poker and one that would legalize online casino games and bingo. SB 885 was paired with SB 761, which would require a statewide voter referendum in November 2026 for full implementation. The online poker bill was an interesting proposal, designed to overcome the union and stakeholder opposition that has thwarted the state’s past online casino efforts.
A hearing on March 11, 2026, in the Budget and Taxation Committee resulted in no vote, as problem gambling and cannibalization concerns persist.
The bill failed to pass the Senate before the March 23 crossover deadline and is effectively dead for the year.
SB 884 was withdrawn by Watson on March 13.
Massachusetts
- HB 4431, sponsored by Rep. David Muradian
Massachusetts held two committee hearings on online casinos in 2025, but a vote was never taken. A June 23 legislative hearing (on HB 332 and SB 235) was short and sweet, with testimony and no questions from the committee. No vote was taken at a November hearing in front of the Joint Committee on Economic Development and Emerging Technologies either, but lawmakers did ask questions, mostly pointing to concerns about the existing harms of sports betting.
The bill was sent to study on March 23, effectively killing it for the remainder of the year.
The upcoming launch of online lottery products will also make further expansion difficult, as Massachusetts Treasurer Deborah Goldberg said in December: “I, right now, am firmly against iGaming. They may not like me for that, but I gotta think about the people of Massachusetts, and that’s my top priority.”
Virginia
Virginia burst into the online casino conversation last year with two bills, SB 827, sponsored by Sen. Mamie Locke, and HB 2171, sponsored by Del. Marcus Simon. The existence of the bills wasn’t a surprise, but the attention they received certainly was. Still, stakeholder opposition and union concerns caused Locke and Simon to pull their respective bills.
Simon and Locke introduced new bills, HB 161 and SB 118, in January 2026. The new bills include policies to address lottery and job concerns, as well as provide higher problem gambling funding.
The bills progressed to a conference committee, where they failed to receive approval.
Steve is a highly respected and oft-cited voice in the legal online gambling space. Steve is an analyst and consultant and the publisher of the Straight to the Point newsletter.
