Regulators, Prediction Markets, And RG, Next Week On '90210'

One of my favorite television shows of all time was Beverly Hills 90210.

If I had to pick my favorite reason for this show being one of my favorites, it was due to the ever-changing alliances among the characters, especially the Dylan-Brenda-Kelly love triangle. (I'm #TeamKelly, but whatever.)

Point being, you never knew, week to week, who was going to stab who in the back, who was going to be dating who, who was going to be breaking up, or who was going to get drunk before the prom and, as a result, potentially not graduate.

And while I'm very positive I can go on for another 20,000 words about 90210, I'll stop here, though I do need to try to figure out who is Dylan, who is Brenda, and who is Kelly in the saga involving the Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB), National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG), and Kalshi.

To briefly recap (or, as they say, last week on 90210): In May, Kalshi wrote a check for $2 million and was (choose one) accepted into // joined // bribed its way into the NCPG. The NCPG went so far as to create a whole new membership subcategory, Financial Services & Trading, for Kalshi. Because, you know, it's not gambling.

This bit of news was met with indifference or eye rolls, depending, and was more or less quickly forgotten by the industry at large.

Well, the MGCB didn't forget about it, and in a (choose one again) snit // principled decision, decided to withdraw from the NCPG, stating, in part, that "NCPG's partnership with Kalshi also creates substantial confusion by suggesting to the public that Kalshi is subject to the same consumer protections, licensing requirements, and regulatory oversight as licensed sports betting operators. It is not."

All right. I think I have it.

The NCPG is Dylan, at the center of the storm. The MGCB is Brenda, getting a little whiny about the whole thing. And the upstart Kalshi is Kelly. That was actually easier than I thought.

The NCPG says it's "disappointed" in Michigan, that it has held a neutral position on legal gambling for more than 50 years, and that taking a member's money is not the same as an endorsement. Which is exactly what Dylan would say. Probably. I’m stretching this now.

Battle lines

Of course, this isn't the first time Kelly Kalshi has upset the apple cart between gambling and not-gambling.

Back in November, DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics left the American Gaming Association (AGA) over the fact that all three decided to get into the prediction market game. The AGA is firmly against prediction markets, going so far as to hire former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — the same guy who was governor when the whole "let's overturn PASPA" thing got started — to fight the fight for them.

But in a 90210 wrinkle, and according to Contessa Brewer of CNBC, the AGA board was weighing a rule change that would boot any operator dabbling in prediction markets. So DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics didn't wait around to get dumped. They left first. And if you watched enough 90210, you know that's the oldest move there is. Break up with them before they break up with you.

In the end, the AGA, a trade group for legal gambling operators, couldn't see eye to eye with some of its biggest members over how to classify prediction markets. Same with the MGCB and the NCPG.

And here's the thing about 90210, because I’m not going to let this metaphor die, just like the thing about all this: There were, and are, never any real sides.

Brenda and Kelly weren't enemies over principle. They wanted the same guy. The alliances shifted week to week because they were never about anything except who wanted what.

Same story here. The AGA talks about the integrity of the game. The MGCB talks about consumer protection. The NCPG talks about public health. Kalshi talks about financial products. All of it might even be true.

But follow the money and every one of these moves makes perfect sense. Kalshi bought a chair at the responsible gambling table for $2 million. DraftKings and FanDuel walked away from their own trade group because there might be more money in the new thing than the old one.

For now, Michigan is the only regulator to walk. Whether anybody follows is the tune-in-this-fall plot question.